HPL ELECTRIC & POWER

Limited | Gurugram, Haryana

AI-Powered Analytics

MDM Platform | Appendix F

Why AI in MDM Matters for HPL

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Extra Revenue Stream

Sell AI analytics as premium add-on to DISCOMs beyond basic MDM

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Competitive Moat

Proprietary ML models that competitors can't easily replicate

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DISCOM Pain Solver

Address AT&C loss reduction mandate with proven AI tools

Beyond Rule-Based: Where AI Outperforms Traditional VEE

Traditional VEE engines use static math rules. AI learns patterns, adapts to context, and predicts outcomes that rules cannot.

Capability Rule-Based (Traditional) AI-Powered (FluxAI)
Anomaly Detection Fixed thresholds (e.g., >200% variation = alert). High false positives. Learns individual consumer patterns. Adapts to seasonal, behavioral context. 3x fewer false positives.
Theft Detection Tamper flags from meter hardware only. Catches obvious bypass. ML analyzes consumption patterns to detect sophisticated theft. 96% detection rate with 3% false positive (XGBoost models).
Load Forecasting Historical average + simple growth factor. Error margin: 15-20%. LSTM/CNN models with weather, events, economic data. Error margin: 3-5%.
Data Estimation Linear interpolation when data missing. Context-aware estimation using similar consumers, weather, time-of-use patterns.
Consumer Segmentation Static categories: Residential, Commercial, Industrial. Dynamic clustering by actual usage patterns. 15+ behavioral segments for targeted DSM programs.
Transformer Loading Alerts when >80% capacity. Reactive. Predicts overload 24-72 hours ahead. Identifies degradation patterns. Prevents failures.
Billing Disputes Manual review of each complaint. Auto-validates bills against learned patterns. Flags genuine anomalies vs consumer gaming.

Key Insight: Rule-based systems ask "Did this reading violate threshold X?" AI asks "Does this reading make sense given everything we know about this consumer, this weather, this time, and similar consumers?"

AI Use Cases: Extra Value HPL Can Sell to DISCOMs

Each use case represents a monetizable capability that goes beyond basic MDM functionality.

1. Intelligent Theft Detection & Revenue Protection

HIGH VALUE

Machine learning models analyze consumption patterns at individual and feeder level to identify sophisticated theft that hardware tamper flags miss.

How It Works
  • LSTM models learn normal consumption "fingerprint" per consumer
  • Ensemble classifiers detect consumption-load mismatches
  • Graph neural networks identify meter bypass through neighbor analysis
  • Automated prioritization of high-probability theft cases
DISCOM Impact
  • 2-5% additional revenue recovery from undetected theft
  • 96% detection accuracy with <3% false positives
  • Field crew efficiency: investigate high-confidence cases first
  • Direct contribution to AT&C loss reduction targets

2. Predictive Transformer Analytics

HIGH VALUE

Aggregate smart meter data at transformer level to predict overloads, detect degradation, and optimize maintenance scheduling.

How It Works
  • ML aggregates downstream meter data to infer transformer loading
  • Thermal models predict insulation stress and failure probability
  • Pattern recognition identifies abnormal heating cycles
  • Weather-adjusted load forecasting per transformer
DISCOM Impact
  • Predict overloads 24-72 hours in advance
  • 25-30% reduction in transformer failures
  • Optimized capital allocation for replacements
  • Improved SAIDI/SAIFI reliability metrics

3. AI-Powered Load Forecasting

CORE CAPABILITY

Deep learning models deliver feeder-level and system-level load forecasts with accuracy far beyond traditional statistical methods.

How It Works
  • Attention-based CNN-GRU models for time-series prediction
  • Multi-variate inputs: weather, holidays, economic indicators
  • Hierarchical forecasting from meter to feeder to substation
  • Automated model retraining as patterns evolve
DISCOM Impact
  • Forecast accuracy: 95-97% (vs 80-85% traditional)
  • Optimized power purchase from exchanges
  • Reduced deviation settlement charges
  • Better renewable integration planning

4. Consumer Behavior Analytics & Segmentation

DSM ENABLER

Cluster consumers by actual usage patterns (not just tariff category) to enable targeted demand-side management programs.

How It Works
  • Spectral clustering on load profiles identifies 15+ behavioral segments
  • Hidden Markov Models track consumption habit changes
  • Propensity scoring for demand response participation
  • Churn and payment default risk prediction
DISCOM Impact
  • 3-5x higher participation in ToU/demand response programs
  • Personalized energy efficiency recommendations
  • Targeted collection efforts for high-risk accounts
  • Data-driven tariff design inputs

5. Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM)

EMERGING

Disaggregate total meter reading into individual appliance consumption without additional sensors - enabling appliance-level insights from existing smart meters.

How It Works
  • Deep learning identifies unique energy "signatures" per appliance
  • Pattern separation algorithms isolate AC, geyser, refrigerator, etc.
  • Works with standard 15-minute interval smart meter data
  • Accuracy improves with larger training datasets
DISCOM Impact
  • Identify high AC load pockets for peak management
  • Target appliance replacement programs (BEE star ratings)
  • Consumer engagement with detailed usage breakdown
  • Agricultural pump load segregation

6. Automated Billing Anomaly Resolution

OPERATIONAL

Reduce billing exceptions and consumer disputes through AI-powered validation that understands context, not just thresholds.

How It Works
  • ML classifies "exceptions" as genuine vs explainable variations
  • Automated estimation for missing data with confidence scores
  • Pattern matching to pre-emptively flag disputable bills
  • Consumer-specific normal range learning
DISCOM Impact
  • 60-80% reduction in manual exception handling
  • 45% fewer billing disputes from consumers
  • Reduced truck rolls for meter verification
  • Faster billing cycles

Competitive Moat: What Others Can't Easily Replicate

These AI capabilities create sustainable differentiation that hardware-focused competitors cannot quickly match.

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Indian Grid-Trained Models

Our ML models are trained on Indian consumption patterns - agricultural pump loads, monsoon variations, festival peaks, urban/rural differences. Global MDM vendors use Western-trained models that don't understand Indian grid behavior.

Real-Time Edge + Cloud Architecture

FluxAI runs inference at the edge (HES level) for instant anomaly detection, with cloud training for model updates. Competitors rely on batch processing that misses real-time theft and tampering events.

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Proprietary Feature Engineering

Years of utility domain expertise encoded into 200+ engineered features for theft detection - load factor patterns, time-of-use anomalies, neighbor comparisons, seasonal decomposition. This IP took years to develop.

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Continuous Learning Pipeline

Models automatically retrain on new data with drift detection. As DISCOM meter base grows, AI gets smarter. Competitors offer static models that degrade over time without expensive manual updates.

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Integrated AI Across Stack

AI is embedded in VEE, analytics, and operations - not a bolt-on module. Competitors selling point solutions (just theft detection, just forecasting) can't deliver the compound value of integrated intelligence.

For Genus/Secure Meters to Match This:

  • They'd need 18-24 months to build AI team and train models
  • They'd need access to diverse DISCOM data for training (which they don't have)
  • Their HES-centric architecture doesn't support real-time AI inference
  • Their business model is hardware margin, not software value - misaligned incentives

AI for AT&C Loss Reduction: The RDSS Mandate

RDSS mandates reducing AT&C losses from 22% to 12-15%. AI is the force multiplier DISCOMs need to hit these targets.

Without AI

  • Only catch theft with hardware tamper flags
  • Reactive transformer maintenance
  • Manual exception processing backlogs
  • Inaccurate load forecasts = DSM waste
  • No visibility into where losses occur
AT&C Loss: 18-22%

With FluxAI

  • ML detects sophisticated theft patterns
  • Predictive transformer analytics
  • 80% automated exception handling
  • 95%+ forecast accuracy for DSM
  • Drill-down visibility: state → feeder → transformer
AT&C Loss: 12-15%

AI Contribution to Each Loss Component

Technical Losses Transformer loading optimization, capacitor bank placement recommendations 1-2% reduction
Commercial Losses (Theft) ML-based theft detection, bypass identification, meter tampering analytics 3-5% reduction
Billing Inefficiency Automated exception handling, accurate estimation, dispute reduction 1-2% reduction
Collection Losses Payment default prediction, targeted collection prioritization 0.5-1% reduction

AI Monetization Options for HPL

Bundled Premium

Include AI analytics in MDM license at premium pricing. Position as "Intelligent MDM" vs competitor's basic MDM.

Premium: 25-40% over basic MDM

Module Add-Ons

Sell AI capabilities as separate licensed modules: Theft Detection, Load Forecasting, Consumer Analytics.

Each module: per-meter monthly fee

Outcome-Based

Revenue share on recovered theft. HPL gets % of additional revenue collected through AI-identified cases.

Share: 10-20% of recovered revenue
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Trinesis Technologies

Confidential Proposal